Africa: Genocide Risk in Sub-Saharan Region, by country
CountryRisk,
in %
SudanSudan5.7
EthiopiaEthiopia5.1
GuineaGuinea4.5
SomaliaSomalia3.8
NigeriaNigeria3.2
UgandaUganda3.0
MaliMali2.9
Democratic Republic of CongoDemocratic Republic of Congo2.7
MozambiqueMozambique2.7
CongoCongo2.7
AngolaAngola2.4
ChadChad2.4
NigerNiger2.4
TanzaniaTanzania2.4
Burkina FasoBurkina Faso2.3
South AfricaSouth Africa2.3
Ivory CoastIvory Coast2.0
LiberiaLiberia1.9
RwandaRwanda1.9
Sierra LeoneSierra Leone1.8
Central African RepublicCentral African Republic1.6
MalawiMalawi1.6
CameroonCameroon1.2
MauritaniaMauritania1.2
KenyaKenya1.1
TogoTogo1.0
GabonGabon0.9
ZimbabweZimbabwe0.9
Guinea-BissauGuinea-Bissau0.7
MadagascarMadagascar0.7
SenegalSenegal0.7
ZambiaZambia0.7
BurundiBurundi0.6
EritreaEritrea0.4
ComorosComoros0.3
MauritiusMauritius0.3
South SudanSouth Sudan0.3
BeninBenin0.2
DjiboutiDjibouti0.2
GhanaGhana0.2
NamibiaNamibia0.2
BotswanaBotswana0.1
LesothoLesotho0.1
The GambiaThe Gambia0.1
Equatorial GuineaEquatorial Guinea0.0
  • Region: Africa
  • Time period: 2023 and 2024
  • Published: Mar 2024

Data Analysis and Insights

Updated: Apr 10, 2024 | Published by: Statistico | About Us / Data / Analysis

Top Five Countries by Genocide Risk

Sudan leads with the highest risk of genocide at 5.7%, followed by Ethiopia (5.1%), Guinea (4.5%), Somalia (3.8%), and Nigeria (3.2%). These countries represent the most critical areas of concern in sub-Saharan Africa as of 2024.

Risk Variation Across the Region

Risk percentages span from 0.0% to 5.7%, indicating significant variation in genocide risk across sub-Saharan African countries. The highest risk is over 19 times greater than the lowest observed risk, emphasizing the disparity in stability and security within the region.

Countries with Lowest Risk

Equatorial Guinea, Botswana, Lesotho, and The Gambia share the lowest genocide risk at 0.1% or lower, highlighting regions of relative stability and lower immediate concern for such atrocities.

Average Risk Assessment

Calculating the average risk across all countries will provide a broader view of the overall genocide risk level within sub-Saharan Africa, offering insights into regional stability.

Correlation between Geographical Proximity and Risk Levels

An analysis of countries sharing borders may reveal patterns of risk contagion or regional security dynamics, suggesting whether geographical proximity correlates with similar risk levels.

Overall Risk Level in Sub-Saharan Africa

The average genocide risk across sub-Saharan African countries is 1.63%, indicating a moderate level of concern at a regional scale. This average suggests that while there are countries with significantly higher risks, the region as a whole does not uniformly face high genocide risk levels.

High-Risk Countries and Geographical Proximity

The high-risk countries, with risks above the average of 1.63%, include Sudan, Ethiopia, Guinea, Somalia, Nigeria, Uganda, Mali, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Republic of the Congo, Angola, Chad, Niger, Tanzania, Burkina Faso, South Africa, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Rwanda, and Sierra Leone. Notably, countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of the Congo, and Angola, along with others in the Great Lakes and West African regions, indicate a pattern where high-risk countries often share geographical proximity. This suggests regional factors significantly influence genocide risk levels.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which countries have the highest genocide risk?

The countries with the highest genocide risk are Sudan (5.7%) , Ethiopia (5.1%) , Guinea (4.5%) , Somalia (3.8%) , and Nigeria (3.2%) .

What is the range of genocide risk percentages across sub-Saharan Africa?

Genocide risk percentages span from 0.0% to 5.7% across sub-Saharan African countries, with the highest risk being over 19 times greater than the lowest observed risk.

Which countries have the lowest genocide risk?

The countries with the lowest genocide risk are Equatorial Guinea, Botswana, Lesotho, and The Gambia, each with a risk of 0.1% or lower.

What is the average genocide risk across sub-Saharan Africa?

The average genocide risk across sub-Saharan Africa is 1.63%, suggesting moderate levels and disparities of concern across the region.

Terms and Definitions

A geographical term referring to the area of the African continent that lies south of the Sahara. It contrasts with North Africa, which is considered part of the Arab world. Its boundaries are not defined strictly by geography but also by geopolitics, economics, and culture. It includes more than 40 countries and is home to numerous ethnic, linguistic, and cultural groups.

A term used to describe the premeditated, systematic, and deliberate destruction, in whole or in large part, of an ethnic, racial, religious or national group. This mass extermination can be carried through various means such as killing members of the group, causing serious bodily or mental harm, deliberately imposing living conditions that aim to bring about the group's physical destruction, and measures intended to prevent births within the group.

A category of people who identify with each other, usually on the basis of a presumed common genealogy or ancestry. Ethnic groups are also usually united by common cultural, behavioral, linguistic, or religious practices. In many instances, they have a common geographical origin.

Referring here to the violent struggle or clash between opposing groups, societies, or nations, driven by a wide array of factors including territorial disputes, political power, economic advantage, ethnic tensions, and religious differences. It often leads to social disruption and loss of life.

The basic rights and freedoms to which all humans are considered entitled, often held to include the rights to life and liberty, freedom of thought and expression, and equality before the law. Violations of these rights often play a major role in the lead-up to genocide.
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