Nigeria: Genocide Risk Rate, by year
Year bracketRisk,
in %
2023-20243.2
2022-20237.9
2021-20227.1
2020-20217.3
2019-20205.2
2018-20195.9
2017-20185.9
  • Region: Nigeria
  • Time period: 2017 to 2024
  • Published: Mar 2024

Data Analysis and Insights

Updated: Apr 9, 2024 | Published by: Statistico | About Us / Data / Analysis

Decline in Risk from 2022-2023 to 2023-2024

The risk of mass murder in Nigeria has seen a significant decrease from 7.9% in the 2022-2023 period to 3.2% in 2023-2024. This reduction by more than half signals a notable improvement in the country's security situation or effectiveness of interventions within a year.

Comparison of Risk in the Last Three Periods

In the most recent periods, risk levels have fluctuated. Between 2021-2022 and 2022-2023, the risk slightly decreased from 7.1% to 7.9%, indicating an increase rather than a decrease. However, the latest period (2023-2024) broke this trend with a drastic reduction to 3.2%.

Stability in Risk Rates Before 2022

Before the 2022-2023 spike, risk rates showed relative stability. Between 2017-2018 and 2019-2020, the risk oscillated narrowly between 5.2% and 5.9%, suggesting a period of consistent but heightened risk levels compared to the most current data.

Historical Peak in 2022-2023

The year 2022-2023 marked the historical peak in risk for mass murder in Nigeria at 7.9%, the highest in the observed time frame. This peak stands in contrast to both the preceding and succeeding periods, highlighting a temporary exacerbation of threats during that time.

Lowest Risk in the Latest Year

The year 2023-2024 not only saw a significant drop in risk but also recorded the lowest risk percentage at 3.2% over the seven-year span provided. This marks a pivotal moment in potentially changing trends of mass murder risk in Nigeria.

Trends in Risk Reduction and Increase

Analysis of the provided data reveals a trend of gradual increases in risk leading up to a peak in 2022-2023, followed by a sharp decline. From a broader perspective, this suggests cycles of increasing threat levels followed by significant interventions or changes leading to risk reduction.

Comparative Analysis of Early and Recent Periods

When comparing the early (2017-2018) and recent (2023-2024) periods, the risk has decreased from 5.9% to 3.2%. This comparison underscores an overall downward trend in the risk of mass murder over the years, notwithstanding the fluctuations observed in the interim periods.

Frequently Asked Questions

What significant change occured in the risk of mass murder in Nigeria?

The risk of mass murder in Nigeria significantly decreased by over half from 7.9% in 2022-2023 to 3.2% in 2023-2024.

How have the risk levels fluctuated in the recent periods?

Risk levels slightly increased from 7.1% in 2021-2022 to 7.9% in 2022-2023, but dropped drastically to 3.2% in 2023-2024.

How has the risk changed when comparing the early and recent periods?

The risk has decreased from 5.9% in 2017-2018 to 3.2% in 2023-2024, showing an overall downward trend in risk of mass murder.

Terms and Definitions

Mass murder is defined as the act where an individual or group of people deliberately kill a large number of individuals, typically at the same time or over a short period. These incidents usually occur in a single, communal or public place.

Risk rate is a statistical measure generally used to quantify the level or magnitude of a risk, such as the incidence of a dangerous event or the likelihood of occurrence of a certain negative event within a specific time frame.

Conflict drivers refer to underlying causes, elements or factors that escalate or fuel conflicts. They can be economic, political, social, or environmental in nature.

The homicide rate is the number of homicides that occur per a specific numerical segment of the population, usually calculated per 100,000 people in a year. This is typically used in criminology and public safety contexts to assess the severity of violent crime in a certain area.

Safety measures refer to any actions, protocols, or procedures implemented with the goal of reducing or preventing harm, injury, or loss. These can be legal regulations, educational programs, or preventive procedures used to mitigate potential dangers or risks.

Violence prevention refers to a strategic approach, policy or program designed to reduce or eliminate instances of violence by identifying early warning signs, addressing the root causes, and implementing interventions to prevent perpetration or recurrence.
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