Football: Champions League Winning Chances, by club
ClubChance of winning,
in %
Manchester City33
Bayern Munich15
Real Madrid11
Arsenal9
Barcelona7
Paris Saint-Germain6
Manchester United5
Napoli4
Atlético Madrid4
Newcastle United4
Inter4
  • Region: Europe
  • Time period: Sep 4, 2023
  • Published: Sep 2023

Data Analysis and Insights

Updated: Mar 27, 2024 | Published by: Statistico

Manchester City leads with the highest chance of winning

Manchester City holds a dominant position with a 33% chance of winning the Champions League, more than double the chance of its closest competitor, Bayern Munich, at 15%.

Top three clubs account for nearly 60% of winning chances

Manchester City, Bayern Munich, and Real Madrid collectively account for 59% of the total chance of winning, highlighting a significant concentration of probability among the top contenders.

Only five clubs have a double-digit chance of winning

Among the clubs listed, only Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Arsenal, and Barcelona have a double-digit chance of winning, emphasizing the steep drop-off in likelihood beyond the top five.

Arsenal and Barcelona's combined chances are less than Manchester City's

Arsenal and Barcelona together sum up to a 16% chance of winning, which is still less than half of Manchester City’s alone, showcasing Manchester City's significant edge.

The bottom half of the list shares similar odds

Manchester United, Napoli, Atlético Madrid, Newcastle United, and Inter each have a relatively low chance of winning, ranging from 4% to 5%, indicating a tight competition among these teams for an outside chance.

Paris Saint-Germain has a marginal advantage over the mid-tier cluster

Paris Saint-Germain stands slightly apart from the mid-tier group with a 6% chance of winning, marginally higher than clubs like Manchester United and Napoli, suggesting a slight edge in their favor.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Manchester City's chance of winning the UEFA Champions League?

Manchester City holds a strong 33% chance of winning the UEFA Champions League.

Which clubs account for nearly 60% of winning chances?

The clubs Manchester City, Bayern Munich, and Real Madrid collectively account for 59% of the total chance of winning.

Terms and Definitions

Football is a team sport played between two teams of eleven players each. The objective of the game is to score more goals than the opposing team within the specified period of time. It is widely recognized and played globally, with many organizing bodies, such as FIFA and UEFA, who govern and oversee competitions at different levels.

The UEFA Champions League is one of the most prestigious club football competitions in the world, organized annually by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA). The tournament involves top-division European football clubs, competing to be crowned as European champions. The competition begins with a series of qualifying rounds before proceeding to a group stage, followed by knockout rounds, and ends with a final match.

In football, a club refers to a team that participates in various competitions. Clubs are typically made up of professional football players signed under contracts, supported by a backroom staff of coaches, managers, and other personnel. Clubs play in different leagues and competitions based on their geographical location and performance level.

Winning chances refers to the probability or likelihood of a particular team winning a match or competition. It is typically calculated based on a variety of factors such as the team's current form, performance statistics, player injuries, and historical performance in similar matches or competitions. This term is commonly used in sports betting and forecasting to predict the outcome of a game.

In the Champions League competition, the group stage involves 32 teams divided into eight groups of four. Each team plays every other team in their group twice, both home and away. The top two teams from each group based on points then advance to the knockout stage.

The knockout stage follows the group stage in the Champions League. In this stage, 16 teams play in a single-elimination format. Teams play against each other over two legs, home and away, with the team having the higher aggregate score over the two legs progressing to the next round.

Aggregate score is a method used in football to determine the winner of a two-legged tie. The aggregate score is the total score of a team combined from two individual games - one played at each team's home stadium. If the aggregate score is tied after two matches, away goals or additional extra time and penalty shootouts may be used to decide the winner.

The Away Goals Rule is a tiebreaking method in football. In a two-leg match, if teams are tied on aggregate score, the team that scored more goals in their away game is declared the winner. If they are still tied on away goals, extra time and potentially a penalty shootout are used to determine the outcome of the match.

Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) is the administrative body for association football in Europe. It organizes and oversees many of the premier football competitions, including the UEFA Champions League, and is responsible for setting rules, regulations, and standards for these competitions.
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UEFA, the Union of European Football Associations, is the administrative body for football in Europe, managing numerous competitions, including the prestigious UEFA Champions League, to promote and enhance the sport across the continent. Read more »
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